Early Payout EV Calculator
Value a 2UP or early-payout offer using disjoint outcome probabilities.
How it works
Only early-paid bets that would not win at full time add value. Add that separate probability to the normal win probability before calculating expected return.
A stake of 100 at 2.00 with a 50% final-win chance has zero EV. If 3% of all matches pay early but do not finish as wins, the promotion adds 6.
Both probabilities use all matches as their denominator and must not overlap. The tool does not estimate the chance of taking a two-goal lead. Use the actual promotion payout and check eligibility.
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How the Early Payout EV Calculator works
Only early-paid bets that would not win at full time add value. Add that separate probability to the normal win probability before calculating expected return.
Early Payout EV Calculator
A stake of 100 at 2.00 with a 50% final-win chance has zero EV. If 3% of all matches pay early but do not finish as wins, the promotion adds 6.
Both probabilities use all matches as their denominator and must not overlap. The tool does not estimate the chance of taking a two-goal lead. Use the actual promotion payout and check eligibility.
FAQ
Early Payout EV Calculatorexpand_more
EV = stake × [odds × (P(final win) + P(early paid, no final win)) − 1]. Both probabilities use all matches as their denominator and must not overlap. The tool does not estimate the chance of taking a two-goal lead. Use the actual promotion payout and check eligibility.