Casino session risk calculator
Expected result, volatility and quantiles
How it works
The model treats each decision as independent with a fixed average edge and per-unit standard deviation. Quantiles say how much the session result is at or below that percentile; they are not a forecast of one particular session.
At 100 bets of 10, a 1% edge and one-unit SD of 1.14, expected loss is 10, session SD is 114 and chance to finish ahead is about 46.5%.
Normal approximation, independent fixed stakes and no bankroll limit. Use a game-specific standard deviation; blackjack strategy, roulette bet mix and craps odds change it. For short sessions or rare jackpots, simulate instead.
Related calculators
How the Casino session risk calculator works
The model treats each decision as independent with a fixed average edge and per-unit standard deviation. Quantiles say how much the session result is at or below that percentile; they are not a forecast of one particular session.
Casino session risk calculator
At 100 bets of 10, a 1% edge and one-unit SD of 1.14, expected loss is 10, session SD is 114 and chance to finish ahead is about 46.5%.
Normal approximation, independent fixed stakes and no bankroll limit. Use a game-specific standard deviation; blackjack strategy, roulette bet mix and craps odds change it. For short sessions or rare jackpots, simulate instead.
FAQ
Casino session risk calculatorexpand_more
mean = −stake × rounds × edge; SD = stake × per-unit SD × √rounds; P(profit) ≈ Φ(mean / SD). Normal approximation, independent fixed stakes and no bankroll limit. Use a game-specific standard deviation; blackjack strategy, roulette bet mix and craps odds change it. For short sessions or rare jackpots, simulate instead.