Risk of Ruin Simulator
Run 10,000 sessions and see what really happens.
How it works
Each session bets until you go broke, hit your stop-win, or run out of bets. Watch the ruin rate: systems that 'win most sessions' still bleed out on the dramatic losing ones.
Flat stakes the same amount, Martingale doubles after a loss, and D'Alembert raises and lowers the stake by one step. The more aggressive the progression, the higher both the chance of quick profit and the risk of ruin.
Risk of Ruin Simulator
This betting system simulator runs thousands of Monte Carlo sessions to reveal what a strategy really does over time — not what it does on a lucky afternoon. Pick Flat, Martingale, or D'Alembert, set your bankroll and odds, and watch the true risk of ruin emerge across 10,000 simulated sessions.
What the simulator does
Each simulated session bets repeatedly until you go broke, hit your stop-win target, or run out of bets. The tool repeats this thousands of times and reports how often you went broke, hit your target, or survived, plus your average final bankroll.
The chart plots 20 sample sessions so you can see the dramatic losing runs that averages hide.
Understanding risk of ruin
Risk of ruin is the percentage of sessions that end with an empty bankroll. A strategy can win the majority of sessions and still be a long-term loser, because the rare ruinous sessions lose far more than the many small winners gain.
This is exactly why progressions like Martingale feel like they work and still fail.
Strategies included
Flat betting stakes the same amount every round. Martingale doubles after each loss. D'Alembert raises the stake by one unit after a loss and lowers it by one after a win. Compare their ruin rates side by side on identical odds.
What is a Monte Carlo betting simulator?expand_more
A tool that plays out a strategy thousands of times using random outcomes, so you see the full distribution of results instead of a single lucky or unlucky run.
Why does a 'winning' system still go broke?expand_more
Because risk of ruin matters more than win rate. Systems that win most sessions can lose everything on the rare bad session, leaving negative expectation overall.
Which strategy is safest?expand_more
Flat betting almost always has the lowest risk of ruin. Run all three on the same inputs and compare the 'went broke' percentage to see for yourself.
Does this simulate real casino odds?expand_more
Yes — set the win probability to match your game (48.6% for European roulette even-money bets) and the simulator uses it for every round.