Mystery Bounty EV Calculator
Value remaining envelopes using their actual prizes.
How it works
Every remaining envelope is equally likely. Multiply each prize by its remaining count to find the pool and divide by the envelope count. Multiple draws are sampled without replacement.
Nine envelopes of 10 and one of 100 have mean 19. Drawing two has EV 38 and a 20% chance of finding the 100 prize.
Prize values and counts must match by position. Use the remaining pool, not the starting pool. The chosen number of envelopes is assumed earned; this does not model knockout probability, tournament equity or buy-in value.
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How the Mystery Bounty EV Calculator works
Every remaining envelope is equally likely. Multiply each prize by its remaining count to find the pool and divide by the envelope count. Multiple draws are sampled without replacement.
Mystery Bounty EV Calculator
Nine envelopes of 10 and one of 100 have mean 19. Drawing two has EV 38 and a 20% chance of finding the 100 prize.
Prize values and counts must match by position. Use the remaining pool, not the starting pool. The chosen number of envelopes is assumed earned; this does not model knockout probability, tournament equity or buy-in value.
FAQ
Mystery Bounty EV Calculatorexpand_more
EV(draws) = draws × Σ(prize × count) / Σcount; net EV = EV − cost. Prize values and counts must match by position. Use the remaining pool, not the starting pool. The chosen number of envelopes is assumed earned; this does not model knockout probability, tournament equity or buy-in value.