Football Poisson Calculator
Score, 1X2, totals and both teams to score
| Score | Win probability |
|---|---|
| 1–0 | 12.31 % |
| 1–1 | 12.31 % |
| 2–0 | 9.23 % |
| 2–1 | 9.23 % |
| 0–0 | 8.21 % |
| 0–1 | 8.21 % |
| 1–2 | 6.16 % |
| 2–2 | 4.62 % |
| 3–0 | 4.62 % |
| 3–1 | 4.62 % |
How it works
Each team's goal count follows a Poisson distribution with the expected goals you supply. Multiplying independent home and away probabilities produces each score probability. Summing score cells gives 1X2 and total markets. The ten most likely scores are shown; they are a subset, not the whole distribution.
For means 1.5 and 1.0, a 0–0 score has probability exp(−2.5) = 8.21%. Both teams score with probability 49.11%.
Independent and constant scoring rates; no league data, team-strength fitting or correlation correction. Inputs must describe the same period. Means are limited to 0–15; scores 0–80 are summed and omitted probability is reported.
Related calculators
How the Football Poisson Calculator works
Each team's goal count follows a Poisson distribution with the expected goals you supply. Multiplying independent home and away probabilities produces each score probability. Summing score cells gives 1X2 and total markets. The ten most likely scores are shown; they are a subset, not the whole distribution.
Football Poisson Calculator
For means 1.5 and 1.0, a 0–0 score has probability exp(−2.5) = 8.21%. Both teams score with probability 49.11%.
Independent and constant scoring rates; no league data, team-strength fitting or correlation correction. Inputs must describe the same period. Means are limited to 0–15; scores 0–80 are summed and omitted probability is reported.
FAQ
Football Poisson Calculatorexpand_more
P(H=h, A=a) = exp(−λH) × λH^h / h! × exp(−λA) × λA^a / a!. Independent and constant scoring rates; no league data, team-strength fitting or correlation correction. Inputs must describe the same period. Means are limited to 0–15; scores 0–80 are summed and omitted probability is reported.