Betting Statistical Significance Calculator
An exact one-sided test against break-even odds.
How it works
Under the null hypothesis, each bet wins with break-even probability 1/odds. The one-sided p-value is the probability of recording at least your observed wins under that hypothesis.
Eight wins from ten bets at odds 2.00 give ROI 60%, but a one-sided p-value of 5.47%: still above a preselected 5% threshold.
Identical odds and stakes, independent settled bets, no pushes or costs. Preselect the sample and test direction. A p-value is not the probability you lack an edge; repeated testing and cherry-picked records invalidate that reading.
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How the Betting Statistical Significance Calculator works
Under the null hypothesis, each bet wins with break-even probability 1/odds. The one-sided p-value is the probability of recording at least your observed wins under that hypothesis.
Betting Statistical Significance Calculator
Eight wins from ten bets at odds 2.00 give ROI 60%, but a one-sided p-value of 5.47%: still above a preselected 5% threshold.
Identical odds and stakes, independent settled bets, no pushes or costs. Preselect the sample and test direction. A p-value is not the probability you lack an edge; repeated testing and cherry-picked records invalidate that reading.
FAQ
Betting Statistical Significance Calculatorexpand_more
p-value = P[Binomial(N,1/odds) ≥ wins]; ROI = wins/N × odds − 1. Identical odds and stakes, independent settled bets, no pushes or costs. Preselect the sample and test direction. A p-value is not the probability you lack an edge; repeated testing and cherry-picked records invalidate that reading.