PlusEV Lab
Simulation & tracking

Session Risk & Profit Target Calculator

Exact bust and target probabilities with stopping rules.

Bust probability
6.77 %
Reach target probability
3.04 %
Neither by the bet limit
90.19 %
Expected final bankroll, units
18.05
Expected bets placed
97.61

How it works

The model tracks every reachable bankroll after each bet. A path stops immediately at zero, at or above the target, or at the bet limit. Stopped money is retained in the expected final bankroll.

With a 1-unit bankroll, a 2-unit target and even-money 50% bets, the first bet either reaches the target or busts: 50% each.

Each loss costs one unit; each win earns a positive whole number of units. No pushes, commissions or changing stakes. Up to 2,000 target units, 10,000 bets and 2 million bankroll updates; overshooting the target is retained.

Pₜ₊₁(b+winUnits) += p × Pₜ(b); Pₜ₊₁(b−1) += (1−p) × Pₜ(b)
Reviewed PlusEV Lab editorial teamCalculation methodology

How the Session Risk & Profit Target Calculator works

The model tracks every reachable bankroll after each bet. A path stops immediately at zero, at or above the target, or at the bet limit. Stopped money is retained in the expected final bankroll.

Session Risk & Profit Target Calculator

With a 1-unit bankroll, a 2-unit target and even-money 50% bets, the first bet either reaches the target or busts: 50% each.

Each loss costs one unit; each win earns a positive whole number of units. No pushes, commissions or changing stakes. Up to 2,000 target units, 10,000 bets and 2 million bankroll updates; overshooting the target is retained.

FAQ

Session Risk & Profit Target Calculatorexpand_more

Pₜ₊₁(b+winUnits) += p × Pₜ(b); Pₜ₊₁(b−1) += (1−p) × Pₜ(b). Each loss costs one unit; each win earns a positive whole number of units. No pushes, commissions or changing stakes. Up to 2,000 target units, 10,000 bets and 2 million bankroll updates; overshooting the target is retained.

Key terms

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