Simulation & tracking

Losing Streak Probability Calculator

The chance of a losing run anywhere in your session.

At least one run anywhere

81.01 %

One specified run

3.125 %

Expected overlapping windows

How it works

The chance of losing the next k bets is not the chance of encountering a k-loss run somewhere in N bets. This calculator tracks the trailing run and counts each session once.

Across three fair bets, a run of at least two losses occurs with probability 37.5%, compared with 25% for two specified bets.

Independent bets with constant win probability, no pushes. Maximum 100,000 bets, run length 1–1,000 and 2 million state updates. Expected windows can exceed one because runs overlap.

state[j] = P(no completed run yet, j trailing losses); P(run) = absorbed mass

Reviewed August 28, 2026PlusEV Lab editorial teamCalculation methodology

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How the Losing Streak Probability Calculator works

The chance of losing the next k bets is not the chance of encountering a k-loss run somewhere in N bets. This calculator tracks the trailing run and counts each session once.