Odds & value

Binomial Betting Probability Calculator

Exactly, at least or at most k winning bets.

Exactly target wins

24.609375 %

At least target wins

62.304688 %

At most target wins

62.304688 %

Expected wins

How it works

The binomial model counts wins when each independent bet has the same success probability. All outcomes with the selected win count are included regardless of order.

For ten fair bets, exactly five wins have probability 24.61%; at least five wins have probability 62.30%.

Independent binary outcomes with a fixed probability and no pushes. Correlated bets or varying probabilities need another model. Up to 10,000 bets are supported.

P(X=k) = C(N,k) × pᵏ × (1−p)ᴺ⁻ᵏ

Reviewed August 28, 2026PlusEV Lab editorial teamCalculation methodology

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How the Binomial Betting Probability Calculator works

The binomial model counts wins when each independent bet has the same success probability. All outcomes with the selected win count are included regardless of order.