Poker Variance Calculator
Expected profit, session spread and losing chance.
How it works
Expected profit grows in proportion to hands. Standard deviation grows with the square root of hands. The interval describes future total results under a normal approximation.
At 5 bb/100 and SD 100 bb per 100 hands, 10,000 hands have mean 500 bb and SD 1,000 bb. The chance of a loss is about 30.85%.
Use a known or assumed long-run win rate and SD measured for 100-hand totals. Constant stakes, stable play and independent results are assumed. The range is not a confidence interval for your true win rate.
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How the Poker Variance Calculator works
Expected profit grows in proportion to hands. Standard deviation grows with the square root of hands. The interval describes future total results under a normal approximation.
Poker Variance Calculator
At 5 bb/100 and SD 100 bb per 100 hands, 10,000 hands have mean 500 bb and SD 1,000 bb. The chance of a loss is about 30.85%.
Use a known or assumed long-run win rate and SD measured for 100-hand totals. Constant stakes, stable play and independent results are assumed. The range is not a confidence interval for your true win rate.
FAQ
Poker Variance Calculatorexpand_more
μ = winRate × hands/100; σ = SD100 × √(hands/100); range95 = μ ± 1.96σ. Use a known or assumed long-run win rate and SD measured for 100-hand totals. Constant stakes, stable play and independent results are assumed. The range is not a confidence interval for your true win rate.